Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
Background
The Caucasus is one of the most ethnically diverse regions globally, with Armenians and Azeris being just a small part of this population. They have different origins; the Azeris are Muslims and descend from Turks, while Armenians are Christians and originally from the Balkan Peninsula. Additionally, the language, alphabet, and traditions are different, contributing to a social division. The first hostilities started after the Hamadan massacre, where between 100,000 and 300,000 Armenians were killed by the Ottomans, which included the Azeris in their population. It is noteworthy that both Armenians and Azeris executed massacres throughout their history. In 1917, after the collapse of the Tsarist Empire, the Caucasus was re-conquered by the Soviet Union in 1921. In the regional division by the USSR, as the territory was ethnically differentiated, the partition ended in the disappointment of both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The Soviet partition included the creation of two enclaves: the first was the Nakhchivan enclave, with a slight majority of the population being composed of Azeris, assigned to Armenia; and the second being the Nagorno Karabakh enclave, where despite 95% of the population being Armenian, it was still conferred to Azerbaijan. With this arrangement, it is clear that in case of the USSR’s collapse, it was just a matter of time before things would turn for the worse. Tensions until the 70s were kept under control by the Soviets, but in the 80s, a nationalistic thought began to spread among Armenians, with the idea that land lost during the Soviet partition, including Nagorno Karabakh, belonged to the Armenians. During this time, ethnic cleansing actions were carried out by both countries.
The First War
In 1991, as the USSR started collapsing and Armenia and Azerbaijan gained their independence, the Nagorno Karabakh republic held a referendum in which the territory passed to the Armenians. The Azeris didn’t recognize the referendum and, in the winter of the same year, started a full-scale attack. By 1993, the war turned out to be catastrophic for both sides, with 30,000 people dead and one million displaced. Nevertheless, Armenia, having a tactical advantage, managed to counter-attack, conquering more than 20% of Azeri territory. Azerbaijan, on the verge of collapsing and fearing a complete defeat, saw an opportunity in the 1994 Russian-proposed bilateral ceasefire to end the events.
Developments
After the end of the war in 1994, there was a desire to find a permanent peace solution with international mediation. However, negotiations stalled over time, resulting in less communication between the two parties. With new infrastructure being constructed, Azerbaijan began exploiting its abundant resources of oil and gas in the Caspian Sea, selling them to Western partners through gas pipelines like the TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline), becoming richer. With new incomes, Azerbaijan began massive investments in military spending, with more than 24 billion spent between 2008 and 2019. New partnerships first with Russia, then with Israel and Turkey, helped renovate their arsenal. Technologies such as kamikaze drones and surveillance drones from Turkey proved fundamental in the second Nagorno Karabakh war. While Azerbaijan was rearming, Armenia didn’t bring significant changes to its policies, becoming outdated. This happened as clashes on the border became increasingly violent with losses on both sides. In 2016, Azerbaijan suddenly started shelling the line of contact with small fighting operations; in reality, these were probing attacks to test the response of the Armenian defense in anticipation of an actual attack. Propagandistic messages began to be spread by the Azeri government, attempting to actively involve its population.
The Second War
The conflict began on the 27th of September 2020, and martial law in Azerbaijan was announced. The ground offensive started with armored formations of the Azeri military entering the territory supported by artillery strikes. The Armenians, overwhelmed, were forced to retreat to the first line of defense but were successful in destroying dozens of armored vehicles using anti-tank weapons. The extensive use of Turkish drones by the Azeri forces turned out to be successful, as Armenian targets were first localized by reconnaissance drones, then artillery and kamikaze drones would precisely strike them. With this strategy, Armenian positions were weakened, cut off from rear support, facilitating a ground attack; also, machines such as air-defense systems could be identified and destroyed. After initial advances, the offensive in the north stalled with a successful counter-attack by the Armenians on the fourth day of the conflict, albeit with casualties. While the situation in the north was more or less doomed, the situation in the south deteriorated for the Armenians, as the Azeris significantly penetrated the Armenian multi-layered defense network. On the 8th of November, Azeri forces entered Shusha, the second-largest city in the province, stopping just 5 kilometers from the Nagorno Karabakh capital Stepanakert. The next day, a ceasefire was signed by both presidents, putting an end to all hostilities. Russian peacekeeping troops would station in the area to ensure both parties comply with the agreement. This conflict turned out to be a major victory for Azerbaijan, which in 44 days managed to regain much of the territory lost in 1994 with little to no international resistance, as the territories in question weren’t recognized as part of Armenia. As a result, thousands of ethnic Armenians were forced to leave their houses, which were then demolished to make room for the new Azeri project of “smart villages” in the region worth billions in investments.
The Third War
The border crisis began in 2021 after the Azeris moved military installations closer to the Armenian border and, in May, launched a small-scale offensive for two days in the Armenian Syunik province, with an estimated land occupation of 215 square kilometers. After these events, the Azeris, with checkpoints, gained control over the only highway connecting Armenia to Nagorno Karabakh, preventing the entrance of logistical and military equipment. After the Syunik occupation, other small clashes occurred, resulting in three hundred deaths and the evacuation of more than 2,700 civilians. These provocations were the proof the Azeris needed to confirm that the Russian peacekeeping troops located at the border wouldn’t respond decisively in case of another large-scale offensive.
In early September 2023, many online videos surfaced, depicting numerous Azeri military convoys reaching the border, and propagandistic messages from the president were published. On the 19th, a ground invasion was launched under the pretext that terrorist threats in Nagorno Karabakh had to be eliminated, and the independent region had to surrender and join the Azeri territory. After heavy shelling of settlements, Azeri forces penetrated the defenses, conquering multiple towns and 60 military posts. On the 20th, talks between the two parties were carried out, with the Nagorno Karabakh region ultimately being annexed to Azerbaijan. As a result, 100,000 ethnic Armenian refugees fled from the region.
Consequences
More than 40,000 people have died since the first conflict